Portfolio hedging is a risk management strategy employed by investors to protect their investment portfolios from potential adverse market movements. It involves the use of various financial instruments or strategies to offset or mitigate the impact of unfavourable market conditions. The primary objective of portfolio hedging is to reduce the overall risk exposure and minimise potential losses.

The stock market does well over very long-term timeframes (15-20+ years) but it is volatile and secular bear-markets occur which bring about horrendous drawdowns (50%+ at the index level). It is not uncommon for secular bear-markets to last for 10/20/30 years and for the related indices to not make any progress for such extended periods of time! Whilst “buy and hold” works during secular bull-markets, this can be a very challenging and frustrating strategy during secular bear-markets. 

Since 1950, there have been over 25 secular bear-markets in stocks in different countries / regions of the world, each lasting for more than 15 years (Figure 1)! It goes without saying, such secular bear-markets test the nerves and patience of even the most enthusiastic investor. 

Figure 1: Secular bear-markets are not uncommon 

Source: GFD, Deutsche Bank 

One way to avoid getting caught in secular bear-markets is by trend-following and cashing out of stocks at the end of primary uptrends and another way is by hedging one’s investment portfolio to offset some of the drawdowns. For our part, we combine both approaches and until we are fully in cash, use a systematic trend following strategy to hedge our long exposure. 

In addition to secular bear-markets, hedging also provides protection to an investor’s portfolio from sudden and large stock market declines caused by exogenous shocks, geo-political conflicts, pandemics and recessions.

Portfolio hedging – common approaches 

There are several common approaches to portfolio hedging. One popular method is diversification, where investors allocate their capital across different asset classes, sectors, or geographical regions. By spreading investments across a range of assets, an investor hopes that the impact of a downturn in one area can be offset by positive performance in others. In theory, this helps to reduce the correlation and concentration risk within the portfolio. However, under certain market conditions, major asset-classes become highly correlated, and they all decline in tandem!  

Another hedging technique is the use of derivatives, such as options or futures contracts. These financial instruments provide investors with the opportunity to protect their portfolio against adverse price movements. For example, investors can purchase put options to establish a predetermined selling price for an asset, thereby limiting potential losses if the asset’s value declines. Similarly, futures contracts can be used to lock in prices for commodities or currencies to hedge against price volatility.

Finally, one can also hedge his/her investment portfolio by shorting ETFs which are correlated to the long holdings in their investment portfolio.

Overall, portfolio hedging is a proactive risk management strategy that helps investors protect their investments from adverse market conditions. It allows them to minimise potential portfolio drawdowns and maintain a more stable and predictable investment performance (equity curve). However, it’s important to note that portfolio hedging strategies come with their own costs and limitations, so investors should carefully consider their objectives, risk tolerance, and always consult with their registered financial adviser before implementing any hedging strategies.

Shorting index ETFs or stock futures is a common strategy used to hedge long exposure in a stock portfolio. When investors short an index ETF or sell stock futures contracts, they aim to profit from a decline in the value of the underlying index or stock. This allows them to offset potential losses in their long positions and create a more market-neutral portfolio, reducing overall risk.

An investor can hedge any type of investment portfolio, but since we allocate our capital to mid to large cap growing businesses, during stock market downtrends, we hedge our exposure by shorting Russell 2000 Index futures. An investor can achieve the same outcome by shorting the related equity index ETF. 

By shorting index ETFs, investors can directly hedge their exposure to a specific market index or sector. For example, if an investor holds a portfolio heavily concentrated in technology stocks and wants to hedge against a potential downturn in the technology sector, they can short a technology-focused index ETF. If the technology sector experiences a decline, the short position in the ETF would generate profits that offset the losses in the long positions.

Alternatively, (like us) investors can utilise stock futures contracts to establish a hedge. By selling stock futures contracts, investors commit to selling a specified number of contracts at a predetermined price in the future. If the stock market declines, the value of the futures contracts decreases, thereby generating profits and offsetting losses in the long portfolio.

When implementing a hedge, investors have the option to hedge on a 1:1 basis, where the  value of the hedge matches the value of the long position. This provides a direct offset to the portfolio’s risk. Alternatively, investors can choose to beta-hedge, which involves adjusting the size of the hedge based on the beta or correlation of the portfolio to the market index. This approach aims to provide a more effective hedge by considering the portfolio’s specific volatility characteristics.

During the duration of the hedge, the portfolio becomes less risky and more market neutral. The short positions in the index ETFs or stock futures help to balance out potential losses in the long positions, reducing the portfolio’s overall exposure to market fluctuations.

It’s important to note that while shorting index ETFs or stock futures can be an effective hedging strategy, it also carries risks. Instead of declining, if the stock market rallies, the short positions produce losses, but these are offset by the long positions in an investor’s stock portfolio. Additionally, costs such as borrowing fees or margin requirements should be considered.

Systematic trend following hedging

To short index ETFs or stock futures, like us, investors can employ a systematic trend following strategy to determine when to initiate and remove the hedge. By using this approach, the decision-making process becomes rule-based, relying on objective criteria rather than subjective discretion or emotions.

A systematic trend-following strategy involves analysing market trends and using predefined rules to determine whether to implement or remove a hedge. Typically, momentum and/or volatility indicators are utilised to identify stock market downtrends or uptrends.

When the trend following indicators signal the start of a new downtrend, the investor would initiate the hedge by shorting stock index futures or ETFs. This helps protect the portfolio from potential losses during the downward market move.

Conversely, when the trend following indicators indicate the end of the downtrend and the start of an uptrend, the systematic strategy triggers the removal of the hedge. At this point, the investor would close the short positions in the index futures or ETFs, allowing the portfolio to benefit from the subsequent upside in the market.

The use of a systematic trend following strategy adds an objective and disciplined approach to the hedging process. It removes the element of emotion and subjective judgment from the decision-making, relying solely on predetermined rules and technical indicators to determine when to hedge and when to remove the hedge.

By employing this systematic approach, investors can potentially benefit from market trends while reducing the overall risk and volatility of their portfolio. However, it’s important to note that no strategy is foolproof, and investors should carefully evaluate the effectiveness of trend following indicators and consider potential risks and costs associated with implementing this strategy. 

Our extensive back testing has revealed that since the start of the new millennium, our proprietary systematic trend following hedging strategy would have marginally reduced long-term returns but significantly reduced one’s portfolio drawdowns during all severe stock market downtrends.  

Figure 2 shows the signals generated by our proprietary systematic trend following hedging strategy during the COVID-crash in early 2020 as well as during the 2022 stock bear-market.

As you can see, our proprietary systematic hedging strategy gave us the signal to hedge our portfolio just before the COVID-crash and it told us to remove the hedge just after the crash. Conversely, no hedging signal was generated during the strong stock market uptrend between spring 2020 and summer 2021. There was one false signal (whipsaw) in autumn 2021 but our hedging system correctly got us hedged in late 2021 and the signal to remove that hedge only came in August 2022. 

Figure 2: Our proprietary systematic hedging strategy on display 

Source: Trendspider 

As you can see from the above, during the recent two bear-markets, our proprietary systematic hedging strategy generated accurate signals to protect our capital and mitigate our portfolio drawdown. 

At AlphaTarget, we invest our capital in some of the most promising disruptive businesses at the forefront of secular trends; and utilise stage analysis and other technical tools to continuously monitor our holdings and manage our investment portfolio. AlphaTarget produces cutting-edge research and those who subscribe to our research service gain exclusive access to information such as the holdings in our investment portfolio, our in-depth fundamental and technical analysis of each company, our portfolio management moves and details of our proprietary systematic trend following hedging strategy to reduce portfolio drawdowns.  To learn more about our research service, please visit subscriptions.

A vast array of investment options are available to investors, yet there can be no doubt that stocks are the best asset-class for long-term wealth creation. Whilst it is true that other asset-classes have their merits, history has shown that over the past century, stocks have significantly outperformed cash, corporate bonds, government bonds and gold. 

Stocks represent part ownership stakes in real-world businesses (productive assets) and over the past century, thousands of world-changing businesses have invented invaluable products and/or services which have changed the way humans work, live and play. By enriching their customers’ lives, these businesses have not only benefited humanity, they have also created immense wealth for their owners or shareholders.  

As businesses keep capturing new markets, introducing new innovative products and services, they will continue to generate ever increasing revenues, profits and free cash flows which will in turn make them more valuable over time. 

As you can see from Figure 1, over the past 200+ years, US stocks have significantly outperformed other major asset-classes and given the pace of ongoing innovation, expansion of the middle-class in the developing world and population growth, American businesses are likely to continue to prosper over the long-term. 

Figure 1: US stocks’ outperformance is staggering! 

Source: Stocks for the long run, Jeremy Siegel 

Although US stocks have done well at an index-level, many dominant and disruptive businesses have done exceedingly well and compounded their revenues, profits and free cash flows at very high rates for very long periods of time! Consequently, the market capitalisations of such enterprises have grown at unbelievable rates; and handsomely rewarded their shareholders. 

Before the advent of the internet, several businesses such as Adidas, American Express, Burger King, Coca-Cola, Colgate, Domino’s Pizza, IBM, KFC, Levi’s Strauss, McDonald’s, Mastercard, Nike, Philip Morris, Procter & Gamble, Unilever and Visa became household names and took over the world. 

In the internet era, many disruptive businesses such as Airbnb, Amazon, Apple, Expedia, Facebook (now Meta), Priceline (now Booking.com), Google (now Alphabet), Netflix, Nvidia, Spotify, Tesla and Uber have captured the hearts and minds of billions of people. 

Although the above businesses operate in different fields, they demonstrate the power of human ingenuity; and prove that if the sharpest minds in the world get together and there is no dearth of capital, the outcomes can be truly spectacular!

Since the start of the new millennium, many dominant businesses in enterprise software, online advertising, online gaming, online retail, online travel, payments, music and video streaming have done very well. 

Turning to investment performance, although US stocks at the index-level (S&P 500 Index) have compounded at 10% per annum over several decades, the market capitalisations of the disruptive, dominant, rapidly growing businesses have compounded at very high rates (15/20/30% per annum)! 

The bottom-line is that although investing in stocks via index investing is a lucrative endeavour over the long run, investing in disruptive, rapidly growing businesses with unique advantages has the potential to produce truly life changing returns. 

At AlphaTarget, our team conducts in-depth research and invests its own capital in such disruptive businesses which are characterised by recurring revenues or frequent/repeat purchases by their customers, high gross margins, free cash flows and strong returns on invested capital (ROIC) at maturity. 

Rationale for investing in disruptive companies 

Innovation

Investing in disruptive businesses allows one to tap into the transformative power of innovation. Such companies challenge traditional norms, introduce ground-breaking products and services, or technologies that revolutionise entire industries. By identifying and investing in disruptive businesses early on, we seek to participate in the significant growth opportunities as these companies reshape markets and capture existing demand from competitors. 

Rapid growth 

Rapidly growing businesses possess the capacity to generate substantial returns over the long term. Disruptive companies either operate in nascent industries or have unique business models that enable them to expand quickly. By investing in such companies, investors can position themselves to ride the wave of growth and benefit from the compounding effect that can significantly enhance their investment returns over time.

High margins and scalability 

At AlphaTarget, we primarily focus on the disruptive, online businesses because these enterprises tend to have high gross margins and also high net profit margins at scale. When it comes to the online economy, the cost of producing digital services is usually low (operating expenses are much lower than brick-and-mortar businesses).

Once they have established their infrastructure and systems, online businesses can serve a large number of customers without significant incremental costs. This allows them to generate higher revenue without a proportional increase in costs, resulting in higher margins.

Online businesses can often scale their operations more efficiently than traditional offline businesses. Digital products and services can be replicated and distributed at minimal or zero marginal cost, allowing online companies to reach a broader audience without incurring substantial expenses for each additional customer. 

Free cash flows and high ROIC

Disruptive companies often have high free cash flow margins and return on invested capital (ROIC) due to their innovative business models. They operate with streamlined processes, lower costs, and efficient supply chains, allowing them to generate significant cash flows. In the online world, the nature of the offerings of the dominant businesses enables rapid cash flow generation without proportionate increases in capital spending, resulting in high free cash flows and high ROIC. 

Outperforming index investing

Investing in innovative businesses provides the potential to outperform index investing. These companies are able to rapidly grow their business for long periods of time, which enables them to outpace broader market indices over the long-term. By carefully evaluating and selecting disruptive businesses, investors can seek to outperform passive index strategies and potentially achieve superior returns.

Investing with the secular trends 

Disruptive businesses usually operate at the forefront of new industries. At AlphaTarget, we observe the secular trends in the business world, study the dominant businesses and invest our capital in the most promising companies.   

Over the past two decades, the below secular trends have transformed the business world:  

E-commerce 

E-commerce has witnessed extraordinary growth, transforming the retail landscape and creating immense investment opportunities. Companies like Amazon, Alibaba, Mercadolibre and Shopify have demonstrated unprecedented growth, reshaping consumer behaviour and capturing significant wealth for shareholders. 

Dominant online travel agencies such as Expedia and Priceline (now Booking.com) have totally disrupted the industry, upended millions of traditional online agents and created immense value for their shareholders.  

E-commerce penetration is still fairly low in many parts of the world, so the leading
businesses in this space are likely to continue to do well over the next few years. 

Online payments 

The rapid proliferation of online payments has revolutionised the financial industry, offering convenience, security, and efficiency. Companies like Adyen, PayPal, Mercadolibre, Square and Stripe have thrived in this space, providing seamless payment solutions that enable individuals and businesses to transact online. As digital payments become increasingly ubiquitous, investing in the leading online payment providers allows investors the opportunity to capitalise on the growth of cashless transactions and the expanding e-commerce ecosystem.

Music and video streaming 

The advent of streaming services has disrupted traditional media consumption patterns, providing consumers with on-demand access to a vast array of content. Companies like Netflix and Spotify have emerged as pioneers in this space, experiencing exponential growth and reshaping the entertainment industry. Investing in the streaming sector has allowed investors to tap into the evolving consumer preferences and the shift towards digital content consumption.

Enterprise software

Enterprise software solutions have become integral to modern businesses, driving efficiency, productivity, and digital transformation. Due to cloud computing and “Software as a Service” (SaaS), enterprise software vendors now have sticky recurring revenues and they have become modern-day utilities. 

The public hyperscalers have also spawned a new generation of software businesses which have experienced remarkable growth by providing cloud-based infrastructure services. Investing in leading enterprise software providers has offered investors exposure to the ongoing digitisation of businesses and the growth runway appears to be long. 

Looking ahead

Long-term projections of any kind should be made with humility but at AlphaTarget, we have high conviction that the e-commerce, fintech/online payments, music/video streaming and software industries will continue to grow. Additionally, we believe that nascent industries such as autonomous driving, gene editing, robotics and space exploration will also transform the way humans live, work and play.

If our world-view is correct, the biggest transformation will be in Artificial Intelligence (AI).  According to our research, AI is a major technological revolution and over the next decade, it will transform every industry.  

Investing in AI-focused businesses will allow investors to participate in the next wave of technological advancements and potentially benefit from the transformative power of AI across various sectors, including education, finance, healthcare, professional services, robotics, transportation, and more.

Since the launch of ChatGPT (autumn 2022),  due to the AI infrastructure (datacentres) build up, dominant “picks and shovels” plays in AI such as NVIDIA and Super Micro Computer have already made a small fortune and rewarded their shareholders.  

Going forward, as businesses begin to monetise AI, we expect some companies at the application layer to prosper. Additionally, enterprise software companies which successfully deploy AI agents on top of their software platforms should also reward their shareholders. 

At AlphaTarget, we invest our capital in some of the most promising disruptive businesses at the forefront of secular trends; and utilise stage analysis and other technical tools to continuously monitor our holdings and manage our investment portfolio. AlphaTarget produces cutting-edge research and those who subscribe to our research service gain exclusive access to information such as the holdings in our investment portfolio, our in-depth fundamental and technical analysis of each company, our portfolio management moves and details of our proprietary systematic trend following hedging strategy to reduce portfolio drawdowns.  To learn more about our research service, please visit subscriptions.